Інтеграція моделей прийняття рішень та управління ризиками в автономних морських системах
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Опубліковано:
гру 1, 2024
Ключові слова:
автономні судна, управління ризиками, прийняття рішень, баєсові мережі, адаптивні стратегії, морські операції
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Анотація
Впровадження автономних систем у морському транспорті кардинально змінює підхід до судноплавства, забезпечуючи підвищену безпеку, зниження експлуатаційних витрат та підвищення ефективності. Водночас ці нововведення створюють низку викликів, особливо у сфері прийняття рішень та управління ризиками. У статті досліджується інтеграція передових моделей, таких як дерева рішень та баєсові мережі, з надійними стратегіями управління ризиками, що дозволяє ефективно справлятися з невизначеностями та загрозами, які супроводжують розгортання автономних суден. Проаналізовано реальні кейси впровадження цих моделей у практику, що підкреслює важливість адаптивних стратегій та систем підтримки прийняття рішень в режимі реального часу для забезпечення надійної та безпечної роботи автономних суден, сприяючи довгостроковій сталості морських операцій.
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Як цитувати
Логінов, О., Бурлаченко, Д., Никитюк, П., Кучеренко, В., Котенко, О., & Волошин, Д. (2024). Інтеграція моделей прийняття рішень та управління ризиками в автономних морських системах. Вісник Одеського національного морського університету, (74), 86-102. https://doi.org/10.47049/2226-1893-2024-3-86-102
Розділ
Забезпечення безпеки мореплавства
Посилання
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2. Zhang, D., Yan, X., Yang, Z., & Wang, J. (2013). An accident data-based approach for congestion risk assessment of inland waterways: A Yangtze River case. Journal of Reliability, 288, 176-188
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8. Bye, R. J., & Aalberg, A. L. (2018). Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 176, 174-186.
9. Jalonen, R., Tuominen, R., & Wahlström, M. (2017). Safety of Unmanned Ships: Safe Shipping with Autonomous and Remote Controlled Ships. Aalto University.
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11. Ventikos, N. P., Chmurski, A., & Louzis, K. (2020). A systems-based application for autonomous vessels safety: Hazard identification as a function of increasing autonomy levels. Safety Science, 131, 104919.
12. Sotiralis, P., Ventikos, N. P., Hamann, R., Golyshev, P., & Teixeira, A. P. (2016). Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 156, 210-227.
13. Van Dorp, J. R., & Merrick, J. R. W. (2011). On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation. Annals of Operations Research, 187, 249-277.
14. Fan, S., Blanco-Davis, E., Yang, Z., Zhang, J., & Yan, X. (2020). Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data- driven Bayesian network. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 203, 107070.
15. Heij, C., & Knapp, S. (2012). Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 17, 228-236.
16. Zhang, D., Yan, X. P., Yang, Z. L., Wall, A., & Wang, J. (2013). Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 118, 93-105.
17. Zhang, D., Yan, X., Yang, Z., & Wang, J. (2012). A subjective approach for evaluating navigational risk of Yangtze River. In Proceedings of the 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012), Helsinki, Finland, 25-29 June 2012.
18. Tezdogan, T., Demirel, Y. K., Kellett, P., Khorasanchi, M., Incecik, A., & Turan, O. (2015). Full-scale unsteady RANS CFD simulations of ship behaviour and performance in head seas due to slow steaming. Ocean Engineering, 97, 186-206.
19. Korban, D., Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Kurdiuk, S., & Shevchenko, V. (2024). Radar-based detection and recognition methodology of autonomous surface vehicles in challenging marine environment. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport, 122, 111-127. https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2024.122.7
20. Melnyk, O., Bychkovsky, Y., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., & Volianska, Y. (2023). Development the Method of Shipboard Operations Risk Assessment Quality Evaluation Based on Experts Review. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 481, 695-710. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35088-7_40
21. Melnyk, O., Onyshchenko, S., Onishchenko, O., Shcherbina, O., & Vasalatii, N. (2023). Simulation-Based Method for Predicting Changes in the Ship's Seaworthy Condition Under Impact of Various Factors. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 481, 653-664. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35088-7_37
22. Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., Shumylo, O., Volyanskyy, S., Bondar, A., & Cheredarchuk, N. (2023). Application of Fuzzy Controllers in Automatic Ship Motion Control Systems. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 13 (4), 3958-3968. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v13i4.pp3948-3957
23. Melnyk, O., Onyshchenko, S., Onishchenko, O., Shumylo, O., Voloshyn, A., Koskina, Y., & Volianska, Y. (2022). Review of Ship Information Security Risks and Safety of Maritime Transportation Issues. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 16(4), 717-722. https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.16.04.13
24. Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., Voloshyn, A., Kalinichenko, Y., Rossomakha, O., & Naleva, G. (2022). Autonomous Ships Concept and Mathematical Models Application in their Steering Process Control. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 16(3), 553-559. https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.16.03.18
25. Melnyk, O.M., Volyanskaya, Y.B., Kalinichenko, E.V., Loginov, O.V., Koryakin, K.S., Burlachenko, D.A., & Shenyavsky, G.S. (2022). The use of information technologies in water transport and prospects for their development. Scientific notes of TNU named after Vernadsky.Technical Sciences, 33(72) No. 3, 99-105. https://doi.org/10.32838/2663-5941/2022.3/16
26. Melnyk, O.M., Onishchenko, O.A., Vasalatii, N.V., Koryakin, K.S., Pulia- iev, I.O., & Shenyavskyi, G.S. (2022). Technologies of information interaction in the process of improving the safety of navigation. Scientific notes of TNU named after Vernadsky.Technical Sciences, 33(72) No. 4, 260-265. https://doi.org/10.32838/2663-5941/2022.4/39
2. Zhang, D., Yan, X., Yang, Z., & Wang, J. (2013). An accident data-based approach for congestion risk assessment of inland waterways: A Yangtze River case. Journal of Reliability, 288, 176-188
3. Zhao, X., Yuan, H., & Yu, Q. (2021). Autonomous vessels in the Yangtze River: A study on the maritime accidents using data-driven Bayesian networks. Sustainability, 13(9985). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179985
4. Abilio Ramos, M., Utne, I. B., & Mosleh, A. (2019). Collision avoidance on maritime autonomous surface ships: Operators’ tasks and human failure events. Safety Science, 116, 33-44.
5. Jokioinen, E., Poikonen, J., Jalonen, R., & Saarni, J. (2016). Remote and Autonomous Ships—The Next Steps; AAWA Position Paper. Rolls Royce plc.
6. Goerlandt, F. (2020). Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships from a risk governance perspective: Interpretation and implications. Safety Science, 128, 104758.
7. Wróbel, K., Montewka, J., & Kujala, P. (2017). Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 165, 155-169.
8. Bye, R. J., & Aalberg, A. L. (2018). Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 176, 174-186.
9. Jalonen, R., Tuominen, R., & Wahlström, M. (2017). Safety of Unmanned Ships: Safe Shipping with Autonomous and Remote Controlled Ships. Aalto University.
10. Dghaym, D., Hoang, T. S., Turnock, S. R., Butler, M., Downes, J., & Pritchard, B. (2021). An STPA-based formal composition framework for trustworthy autonomous maritime systems. Safety Science, 136, 105139.
11. Ventikos, N. P., Chmurski, A., & Louzis, K. (2020). A systems-based application for autonomous vessels safety: Hazard identification as a function of increasing autonomy levels. Safety Science, 131, 104919.
12. Sotiralis, P., Ventikos, N. P., Hamann, R., Golyshev, P., & Teixeira, A. P. (2016). Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 156, 210-227.
13. Van Dorp, J. R., & Merrick, J. R. W. (2011). On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation. Annals of Operations Research, 187, 249-277.
14. Fan, S., Blanco-Davis, E., Yang, Z., Zhang, J., & Yan, X. (2020). Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data- driven Bayesian network. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 203, 107070.
15. Heij, C., & Knapp, S. (2012). Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 17, 228-236.
16. Zhang, D., Yan, X. P., Yang, Z. L., Wall, A., & Wang, J. (2013). Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 118, 93-105.
17. Zhang, D., Yan, X., Yang, Z., & Wang, J. (2012). A subjective approach for evaluating navigational risk of Yangtze River. In Proceedings of the 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012), Helsinki, Finland, 25-29 June 2012.
18. Tezdogan, T., Demirel, Y. K., Kellett, P., Khorasanchi, M., Incecik, A., & Turan, O. (2015). Full-scale unsteady RANS CFD simulations of ship behaviour and performance in head seas due to slow steaming. Ocean Engineering, 97, 186-206.
19. Korban, D., Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Kurdiuk, S., & Shevchenko, V. (2024). Radar-based detection and recognition methodology of autonomous surface vehicles in challenging marine environment. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport, 122, 111-127. https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2024.122.7
20. Melnyk, O., Bychkovsky, Y., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., & Volianska, Y. (2023). Development the Method of Shipboard Operations Risk Assessment Quality Evaluation Based on Experts Review. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 481, 695-710. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35088-7_40
21. Melnyk, O., Onyshchenko, S., Onishchenko, O., Shcherbina, O., & Vasalatii, N. (2023). Simulation-Based Method for Predicting Changes in the Ship's Seaworthy Condition Under Impact of Various Factors. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 481, 653-664. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35088-7_37
22. Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., Shumylo, O., Volyanskyy, S., Bondar, A., & Cheredarchuk, N. (2023). Application of Fuzzy Controllers in Automatic Ship Motion Control Systems. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 13 (4), 3958-3968. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v13i4.pp3948-3957
23. Melnyk, O., Onyshchenko, S., Onishchenko, O., Shumylo, O., Voloshyn, A., Koskina, Y., & Volianska, Y. (2022). Review of Ship Information Security Risks and Safety of Maritime Transportation Issues. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 16(4), 717-722. https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.16.04.13
24. Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Onyshchenko, S., Voloshyn, A., Kalinichenko, Y., Rossomakha, O., & Naleva, G. (2022). Autonomous Ships Concept and Mathematical Models Application in their Steering Process Control. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 16(3), 553-559. https://doi.org/10.12716/1001.16.03.18
25. Melnyk, O.M., Volyanskaya, Y.B., Kalinichenko, E.V., Loginov, O.V., Koryakin, K.S., Burlachenko, D.A., & Shenyavsky, G.S. (2022). The use of information technologies in water transport and prospects for their development. Scientific notes of TNU named after Vernadsky.Technical Sciences, 33(72) No. 3, 99-105. https://doi.org/10.32838/2663-5941/2022.3/16
26. Melnyk, O.M., Onishchenko, O.A., Vasalatii, N.V., Koryakin, K.S., Pulia- iev, I.O., & Shenyavskyi, G.S. (2022). Technologies of information interaction in the process of improving the safety of navigation. Scientific notes of TNU named after Vernadsky.Technical Sciences, 33(72) No. 4, 260-265. https://doi.org/10.32838/2663-5941/2022.4/39