Application of stochastic networks in public sector digitalization projects

Abstract

Network analysis is widely used for planning and project management. PERT and CPM, the best-known network modeling techniques, have been used in various projects for planning and management purposes. However, the capabilities of PERT and CPM are limited, prohibiting the modeling of many complex networked design forms. A more flexible universal network tool that has received increased attention recently is GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique), GERT includes functions such as probabi-listic branching (stochastic models), network loop (feedback loops), multiple receiver nodes ( multiple results) and implementation of multiple nodes (recurring events) that are not available in PERT / CPM. These GERT functions provide the user with the ability to model and analyze the most general designs and systems. Since many systemic problems in the real world are indeed related to probable events, false starts, repetition of actions and multiple results, GERT is an ideal tool for modeling and analysis. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology for modeling the GERT network and the simulation modeling package, as well as demonstrate its capabilities using the example of planning a project of a formalized model «constructive DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCT X», as a result of research work. This GERT review will include a discussion of the use of GERT raw data for management planning and control, including sensitivity analysis and implementation. To create a prototype, it is possible to develop a new technology for its manufacture A, adaptation of another technology B, based on experience. Building a formalized model begins with the empirical operationalization of two key technologies − «technology» (A) and «technology» (B). To preserve the logical structure of the network after the simplifications should check the stochastic correctness of the inputs and outputs of the nodes corresponding to the events, and if necessary, make possible adjustments. Transformation of a replacement network (or function) into a form that allows to determine the duration and probability of project implementation, as well as the calculation of these durations and probabilities.