The use of probabilistic methods for assessing the risks of the modernization of inland and mixed vessels
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Published:
Jan 19, 2020
Keywords:
passenger ship, modernization, obsolescence, risk factors, hazards identification
Main Article Content
Abstract
The article rationalizes using the methodology of formalized IMO risk assessment, identifies the reasons that lead to ship modernization. The paper also provides a probability assessment of the impact of hazards on ship modernization and determines the formalized level of commercial risk. According to the research results, the obsolescence of the vessel is defined as the maximum factor, which leads to the application of one (or several) directions of modernization.
Article Details
How to Cite
Kukalets, L. (2020). The use of probabilistic methods for assessing the risks of the modernization of inland and mixed vessels. Herald of the Odessa National Maritime University, (59(2), 77-90. https://doi.org/10.33082/2226-1915-2-2019-77-90
Section
Design of ships
References
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3. Egorov G.V. (2010) Issledovanie riska avarij korpusov transportnyh sudov ogranichennyh rajonov plavaniya za 1991-2010 gody [Study of the risk of accidents of transport vessels of limited navigation areas for 1991-2010] Vestnik ONMU, no. 30. pp. 53-76.
4. Egorov G.V., Egorov A.G. (2015) Issledovanie nadezhnosti i riska ekspluatacii otechestvennyh rechnyh kruiznyh passazhirskih sudov [The study of the reliability and risk of operation of domestic river cruise passenger ships] Vestnik ONMU, no. 1(43). pp. 5-32.
5. Shahov A.V., Bokareva M.O. (2014) Upravlenie riskami v sudoremontnyh proektah [Risk Management in ship-repairpro-jects] NTU «HPI». Seriya : Strategichne upravlinnya, upravlinnya portfelyami, programami ta proektami. No. 2 (1045). pp. 81-86
6. Aleksandrovskaya N.I. (2003) Upravlenie zhiznennym ciklom sudna putem usovershenstvovaniya strategii tehnicheskogo obsluzhivaniya i remonta [Management by the life cycle of ship by the improvement ofstrategy of technical service and repair] Dis. ... kand. tehn. nauk: 05.22.20. Odessa: ONMU.
7. Aleksandrovskaya N. I., Shahov V.I., Shahov A.V. (2011) Risko-orientirovannaya strategiya tehnicheskogo obsluzhivaniya i remonta sudov [Project-oriented strategy of technical service andrepair of courts]. Odessa: Metodi ta zasobi upravlinnya rozvitkom transportnih sistem. No. 17. pp. 7-17.
8. Syomin A.A. (2011) Identifikaciya i ocenka riskov pri proektiro-vanii passazhirskih sudov vnutrennego i smeshannogo plavannya [Authentication and estimation of risks at planning of passenger-courts of the internal and mixed swimming] Odessa: Vestnik ОNMU. No. 33. pp. 69-77.
9. Syomin A.A. (2013) Uchyot kriteriya komfortabelnosti pri proekti-rovanii passazhirskih sudov vnutrennego i smeshannogo plavaniya [Account of criterion of comfort at planning of passenger courtsof the internal and mixed swimming]: Dis. … kand. tehn. nauk: 05.08.03. Odessa: ONMU, 139 рр.
10. Gmurman, V.E. (2003) Teoriya veroyatnostej i matematiche- skaya statistika [Theory of chances and mathematicalstatistics] Moscow: Vysshaya shkola.
11. Topalov V.P. Torskij V.G., Torskij V.V. (2013) Formalizovannaya ocenka bezopasnosti (FSA) - sushnost i primenenie v sudohodstve [formal safety assessment (FSA) is essenceand application in a navigation]. Odessa: Astroprint.
12. Emelyanov M.D. (2009) Ocenka riska i kritichnye elementy morskih sudov [Risk estimation and critical elements of marine ships] SPb,. Problemy razvitiya morskogo flota: Sb. nauchnyh trudov ZAO «CNIIMF». pp. 20-41.