Systemic analysis of hybrid threats in the maritime sector and justification for the transition to comprehensive adaptive security models
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Published:
May 4, 2026
Keywords:
maritime security, hybrid threats, risk management, cyber-physical systems, adaptive models, digital twin, port infrastructure, underwater operations
Main Article Content
Abstract
The article provides a systematic analysis of contemporary hybrid threats in the maritime sector, which combine physical, cybernetic, informational, and socio-economic vectors of influence. It classifies hybrid threats to maritime shipping and port infrastructure, identifies the limitations of traditional approaches to maritime security, and justifies the need to transition to comprehensive adaptive risk management models. A formalized mathematical model for assessing the risk of hybrid threats, taking into account the effect of their mutual reinforcement, as well as threshold logic for making management decisions in real time, has been proposed. The results obtained can be used to develop decision support systems, digital twins of maritime objects, and to increase the resilience of maritime infrastructure in the face of hybrid threats.
Article Details
How to Cite
Koryakin, K., Dekhta, V., Dovhosheyenko, A., & Mazur, O. (2026). Systemic analysis of hybrid threats in the maritime sector and justification for the transition to comprehensive adaptive security models. Herald of the Odesa National Maritime University, (79), 187-201. https://doi.org/10.47049/2226-1893-2026-1-187-201
Section
Ensuring the safety of navigation
References
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5. Islam, S., Shi, Y., Nahar, R., Ahmed, J.U., & Wang, M. (2025). Identi- fying and analyzing barriers to ship-based evacuation planning using AIS data. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Trans- portation Review, 203, 104357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2025.
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6. Chiodelli, F., Coppola, A., Belotti, E., Berruti, G., Clough Marinaro, I., Curci, F., & Zanfi, F. (2021). The production of informal space: A critical atlas of housing informalities in Italy between public institutions and political strategies. Progress in Planning, 149, 100495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2020.100495.
7. Skare, E., & Haugdal Jore, S. (2024). Hybrid threats in the Norwegian petroleum sector. A new category of risk problems for safety science? Safety Science, 176, 106521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106521.
8. Zhu, X., Zhang, A., Bi, W., & Huang, Z. (2025). Novel situation assessment method for amphibious aircraft maritime rescue using probabilistic linguistic hybrid cloud model and best-worst method. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 156, 111065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2025.111065.
10. Hoang, A.T., Chen, W., López-Escalante, M.C., Guerrero-Pérez, M.O., Rodríguez-Castellón, E., Kowalski, J., Le, T. T., Bui, V.G., & Nguyen, X.P. (2026). Methanol for decarbonization of the maritime sector: From ideological strategy to practical solutions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 229, 116638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.116638.
11. Ledesma, O., & Lamo, P. (2025). Hybrid IoT network for real-time monitoring of maritime containers. Computer Networks, 271, 111627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comnet.2025.111627.
12. Zhaka, V., & Samuelsson, B. (2024). Hydrogen as fuel in the maritime sector: From production to propulsion. Energy Reports, 12, 5249-5267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2024.11.005.
13. Uğurlu, Ö. (2025). Real-time intelligent maritime accident prediction and prevention system for narrow waterways. Autonomous Transportation Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atres.2025.09.002.
14. Tonoğlu, F., Atalar, F., Başkan, İ. B., Yildiz, S., Uğurlu, Ö., & Wang, J. (2022). A new hybrid approach for determining sector-specific risk factors in Turkish Straits: Fuzzy AHP-PRAT technique. Ocean Engineering, 253, 111280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.111280.
15. Melnyk, O., Onishchenko, O., Lohinov, O., Konoplov, A., & Lohinova, L. (2024). Contemporary strategies for advancing cyber- security in maritime cargo transportation. In V. Babak & A. Zaporo- zhets (Eds.), Systems, Decision and Control in Energy VI (Vol. 561, Р. 293-308). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-68372-5_21.